Well, the results are in and President Trump has picked Brett Kavanaugh as his next Supreme Court Justice. I wrongly predicted that Amy Coney Barrett would be picked, and I hoped no one followed my advice, as I am rarely correct in these matters. The only place where I fail much more is in matters of women. If you take my advice on this, then you deserve to get your ass handed to you, but I digress.
The Australian Sports betting firm that set the odds gave Kavanaugh favorable odds with 2.5:1. Amy Coney Barrett who was my pick, came in at 4.0:1. Not exactly a big spread, but the betting firm was nonetheless right on target.
There were many reasons for Kavanaugh over Barrett and one which seems to stand out was experience. As a newly appointed Judge, Barrett did not have the judicial track record of Kavanaugh, which is not to say that she would not have been a good pick. The issue goes more to the question of understanding either Judge’s judicial philosophy on the bench and not just in their papers and what they have said in the past. Republicans have been burned in the past with Justice Kennedy, the man Kavanaugh is expected to replace, as well as many others.
What are Kavanaugh’s odds of becoming the next U.S. Supreme Court Justice?
As of July 11, 2018, odds for Kavanagh’s confirmation seem to be leaning towards him being confirmed although no real numbers are available. Unlike a football/soccer match, there are many variables which are constantly changing and with every comment from a Senator from the opposing Democrats, there is the ability to change the odds. With two Republican Senators seeming to be on the fence of any Trump nomination, the odds will constantly be in flux and to some, a bit too risky.
With my losing prediction of Barrett being nominated I will, for the moment, sit this one out until I get a better idea of the mood of the Senate. I understand that this is a bit of a chicken shit position, but I certainly don’t want to mislead my followers. Although if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to make a prediction…………….I would with some uncertainty predict that Kavanaugh will be confirmed, as the Republicans do control the Senate and have a bit of the upper hand. Stay tuned for the back and forth in this nomination process and be prepared to cut through the droning rhetoric but listen to the true arguments for and against Kavanaugh.